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120838-kdb-daewoo-securities-ncsoft-2015-forecast
Content ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- I agree with this 100%. If you gate new players by only asking existing players to invite their friends, you only get friends of existing players. If you have a "Play Here" button then everyone can try it out.' Everyone>>friends of existing players. | |} ---- I really really dont hope that Wildstar goes F2P. F2P is in my world the worst platform - you end out paying more and the game feels like a website with commercials on the side, the top and the buttom. F2P is not the salvation of Wildstar anyway, as many like you make it out to be. I am very confident in Wildstar making a change in 2015 continuing with the current payment platfiorm, which i deffinately believe is the best to keep for Wildstar. Wildstar is such a solid game, it really does not deserve such a low player base, and I am confident that Drop 4 will be the beginning to changing some of this (not some stupid F2P model). Hopefully, this will be backed up by a huge amount of advertisement. In my book, alot of the reason why Wildstar is where it is, is that there have been absolutely no advertisement of this game. I stumpeled across it myself by accident, and I was actually looking for a new game, after having played WOW for many years. After finding this game in end June 2014, I havnt looked back since. For me, it was just a little strange that KDB didnt mention Wildstar at all in their report. The forecast is what it is, and that is not too bad in my book for a new IP. The forecast is probably the most conservative guestimate you can make, and a turnover for the better will just be a plus. | |} ---- I think Carbine and NCSoft are aware of that. Last information we got from them was that they wanted the game in a better state. How good that state has to be before implementing a huge free trial bonanza is sort of a matter of public and probably internal debate. The logic makes sense, though. If you have a giant flashing PLAY HERE button, you get a lot of new players. If those players are instantly turned off and leave, you get a steady stream of bad publicity. If those players stick around, you get good publicity (a bit like how there are new players showing up now). At the very least, they're not doing it until after drop four when we get that training dungeon and new itemization. Itemization, all told and especially at endgame, was probably Wildstar's biggest black eye. | |} ---- ---- This. I run a gaming forum, just yesterday there were two people asking for guest passes because they wanted to check it out but weren't willing to drop the box fee on an unknown game that might be dead. I only had one guest pass left. | |} ---- Q1 forecast should be pretty good unless NCsoft and Carbine need to go to basic mathematics classes. Q2-Q4 are a reach and that is most likely represented by the flat revenue. There revenue points to around 40-60k subs... kind of inline with what I was suggesting back when people were saying they have hundreds of thousands of active players. There are still several active subs who are not logging in period as they are waiting on game changes. But yeah the flat revenue probably indicates nothing other than normal content drops no new strategy they have budgeted for bringing in new players... or they are sand bagging on the long term budget. | |} ---- Power creep will be a thing in drop 4 cause they increased the stats of epics and Legendaries while keeping ga/dungeons the same | |} ---- Ya this is the take-away I get from the forecast "in a vacuum" as well. If they do nothing different the forecast is somewhat grim. I mean I guess it's ok (not really) that for their 2015 forecast WS is basically flat? Better flat than negative I suppose. | |} ---- I don't know how NCSoft runs their business and determines the forecast of a currently unforecastable game, but these could be values that are inserted to represent the "if nothing happen" scenario. On the other hand these could be values representing "base line" or "no data exists, fill with trends of other similar games". Without knowledge in how they do business speculating at what these numbers represent is just speculation. | |} ---- Q4 earnings report should be out in the next 4 weeks. Will give real numbers to attribute to the decline seen in game. | |} ---- Probably, but you can't forecast without patterns. Reliable patterns can't be seen in only 3 qtrs worth of earnings reports. | |} ----